Apple’s iPhone shipments in China dropped sharply by 10–12% in December 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to a report by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. This decline stands out against relatively stable overall smartphone sales in the region, reflecting growing challenges for the tech giant in one of its key markets.
Reasons Behind the Decline
The iPhone 16 series failed to capture the Chinese market due to minimal improvements over its predecessor, raising concerns about a lack of innovation. Analysts suggest that this stagnation is dampening consumer interest, even as the overall market conditions remain stable.
Outlook for 2025
The upcoming iPhone SE4, expected to launch in early 2025, is unlikely to reverse this trend, as the SE series typically appeals to a niche audience. Further complicating matters, the anticipated iPhone 17 series, rumored to rely exclusively on eSIM technology, may face resistance in China, where eSIM adoption remains limited.
Kuo predicts global iPhone shipments will reach 225 million units in 2025, a slight increase from 2024’s estimated 220 million but falling short of the market’s 240 million-unit consensus.
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Broader Challenges
Apple is expected to face broader challenges in 2025, including nearly flat iPhone growth and the limited impact of its Apple Intelligence initiative on hardware upgrades and service revenue. Despite initial enthusiasm, on-device AI features introduced at WWDC 2024 have failed to sustain interest compared to rapidly advancing cloud-based AI services.
Our Thought
As Apple navigates these hurdles, analysts warn of potential downside risks stemming from overly optimistic market expectations. The company may need to address design, pricing, and feature innovations to regain momentum, especially in competitive markets like China.
